Business & Economics
Indian Refiners Freeze New Russian Crude Orders After U.S. Drops 25% Tariff
On 9 Feb 2026 India’s biggest state and private refiners stopped booking March-April Russian crude cargoes days after President Trump revoked a 25% duty, signalling New Delhi’s intent to clinch a wider trade pact with Washington.
Focusing Facts
- Trump’s 6 Feb 2026 executive order rescinded the across-the-board 25 % tariff on Indian goods, stating that tariffs will snap back if India resumes Russian oil purchases.
- India’s Russian crude intake fell to about 1.2 million bpd in Jan 2026 from a peak near 2 million bpd in mid-2025, with analysts now projecting a further decline to 0.4-0.6 million bpd.
- Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy, constrained by Western sanctions, is expected to keep importing roughly 400 kbpd of Russian oil once its April refinery maintenance ends.
Context
Major powers have long used energy access as leverage: in 1941 Washington’s oil embargo on Japan accelerated Tokyo’s strategic realignment, and in 1978-79 the Carter administration quietly pressured Japan and Europe to curb Iranian crude purchases while offering trade concessions. India’s pause echoes those episodes, spotlighting how tariffs—as much as sanctions—can coerce shifts in hydrocarbon flows. Structurally, the episode fits a century-long pattern of the U.S. weaponizing market scale to police third-party trade with adversaries, while rising powers like India juggle cheap energy against geopolitical alignment. Over the next decades, diversifying away from any single supplier, tightening Western controls on Russian logistics, and the lure of preferential U.S. market access could recast India’s energy map and erode Russia’s post-2022 Asian lifeline. Whether this marks a permanent decoupling or a tactical dip depends on oil price spreads and on how durable American tariff threats prove—questions that will echo through the global crude system well into the 22nd-century energy transition.
Perspectives
US and Western financial/energy media
Reuters, Bloomberg, OilPrice, etc. — Frame India’s sharp pull-back from Russian crude as proof that New Delhi has effectively promised Washington it will slash – and possibly end – those imports in order to clinch a lucrative tariff-cutting trade deal. Rely heavily on unnamed sources and White House language, amplifying a narrative that sanctions are working and that US leverage is decisive, while giving scant attention to India’s stated energy-security concerns or to Moscow’s potential counter-moves.
Russian state-owned media
RT — Highlights that India has not publicly confirmed any halt and that Moscow is unaware of such a decision, suggesting the reported pause in purchases is tentative and reversible. Seeks to downplay the loss of its largest crude buyer and cast doubt on Western reports, likely to reassure domestic and international audiences that Russia’s oil market position remains secure.
Indian domestic outlets stressing strategic autonomy
Republic World, ETAuto — Portray the reduction of Russian oil purchases as a commercially driven diversification move rooted in India’s long-term energy-security strategy rather than as capitulation to US pressure. Echo official statements to assert India’s policy independence, potentially under-representing how strongly the tariff concessions and US diplomacy are shaping corporate buying decisions.