Technology & Science
Meta Doubles Down: $115-$135 B 2026 Capex Green-lit for ‘Personal Superintelligence’
On its 29 Jan 2026 Q4 call, Meta told investors it will almost double annual capital spending to $115-135 b next year to fund new AI data-centres and models, yet still projects higher 2026 operating income than 2025, calming the market and sending shares up about 8-10 %.
Focusing Facts
- Meta’s 2025 capex was $72.2 b; 2026 guidance midpoint: $125 b (+73 %).
- Q4 2025 revenue hit $59.9 b (+24 % YoY) and profit $22.8 b; ad business supplied 97 % of revenue.
- Reality Labs lost $6.0 b in Q4 and ~$19 b in 2025, yet layoffs suggest losses will ‘peak’ in 2026.
Context
Silicon titans have triggered spending waves before: AT&T’s 1983 push to digitise its network or Intel’s 1994 ‘fab binge’ each re-priced entire supply chains but paid off only years later. Meta’s bet reflects a decades-long trend of platform owners racing to own foundational tech layers—from IBM’s System/360 (1964) to Apple designing its own M-series chips (2020). By shouldering perhaps the largest single-year capex in corporate history outside national oil firms, Meta is wagering that proprietary ‘personal superintelligence’ becomes the next consumer OS, and that controlling it secures ad and device dominance for a generation. If the gamble fails—because of regulatory clamps on targeting, an AI demand bust, or a public pivot away from social platforms—the spend could echo the fibre-optic glut of 2001. But if it succeeds, historians in 2126 may mark 2026 as the year social media companies morphed into AI infrastructure utilities, rewriting organisational scale and human-computer interaction norms.
Perspectives
U.S. investor-focused financial media
CNBC, SiliconANGLE, Nasdaq Stock Market — See Meta’s blow-out quarter and bigger-than-expected 2026 revenue guide as proof that Zuckerberg can nearly double AI capex while still lifting profits, so the stock deserves its post-earnings pop. By catering to traders hungry for growth stories, these outlets spotlight beats, guidance and price targets while largely brushing aside regulatory lawsuits, workforce cuts or the long-term societal costs of an AI arms race.
Business press warning about runaway spending
Business Insider — Argues Meta’s plan to pour up to $135 billion into data centers raises hard questions about ROI, noting Wall Street scolded Microsoft for smaller overruns and could sour if ad cash slows. Headline framing and comparisons with peers amp up fear of an ‘AI bubble’ to drive readership, sometimes glossing over that Meta’s own share price jumped on the news.
Global outlets focused on social and regulatory fallout
Mumbrella, BBC, France 24 — Highlight that ballooning AI spend coincides with mounting lawsuits over teen addiction, looming EU ad rules, potential mass layoffs and warnings of an ‘AI bubble,’ suggesting earnings strength may be short-lived. By prioritising public-interest angles, these reports can underplay Meta’s still-dominant cash flow and present worst-case scenarios to press regulators and capture a broad news audience.