Business & Economics
Italy’s U-Turn Tips the Scales for EU-Mercosur Pact
Brussels secured Italy’s backing on 5 Jan 2026 by dangling extra farm funding, giving the EU the qualified-majority votes it lacked ahead of a 9 Jan ambassadors’ ballot and a planned 12 Jan signing of the 780-million-person trade deal.
Focusing Facts
- Qualified majority requires 15 states representing 65 % of EU population; Italy alone accounts for ~13 %, enough to deny or deliver that threshold.
- EU ambassadors are slated to vote on the agreement on 9 Jan 2026, with Commission President von der Leyen pencilled in to fly to Paraguay for a 12 Jan signature ceremony.
- French farmers staged tractor blockades around the Arc de Triomphe on 8 Jan 2026, causing traffic jams up to 150 km in protest against the deal.
Context
When France finally backed the 1957 Rome Treaty, it did so only after securing protective farm policies—the birth of the CAP in 1962; six decades later, Italy is leveraging a similar quid-pro-quo to extract budget promises before consenting to a trade pact. The episode echoes NAFTA’s 1993 passage, where last-minute side accords on labour and environment flipped key votes. Structurally, the clash lays bare two century-old forces: Europe’s instinct to shield small farmers that date to post-war reconstruction, and the post-1990 trend toward mega-regional trade blocs competing for supply-chain gravity. Whether the EU-Mercosur zone becomes another stepping-stone toward a fragmented world of rival spheres—or fizzles like the failed 2005 FTAA—will shape market orientation in Latin America and test the EU’s ambition for “open strategic autonomy” well into the next hundred years.
Perspectives
Business-oriented EU policy outlets
POLITICO, Bloomberg — Present the EU-Mercosur accord as a long-awaited geopolitical win that will expand EU market access, prove the bloc’s global clout and should move forward once Italy comes onside. By foregrounding trade volumes and strategic prestige while giving limited space to farm-sector objections, these outlets cater to pro-integration readers, large exporters and officials who frame growth as overriding rural concerns.
European farmers’ unions and agriculture-focused or protest coverage
Irish Farmers’ Association in Agriland, French farm unions reported by News.az — Warn that the pact will swamp EU markets with cheaper Latin-American meat and crops, undercutting livelihoods and therefore must be blocked by a coalition of sceptical member states. Their messaging highlights worst-case price drops and ignores consumer benefits or wider diplomatic gains because their incentives are to defend subsidies and domestic market protections.