Business & Economics
OPEC+ Affirms Q1-2026 Output Freeze Amid Saudi-UAE Rift and Venezuela Shock
In a sub-ten-minute video meeting on 4 Jan 2026, the eight-member OPEC+ core reconfirmed its November pledge to keep crude production flat through March despite a 2025 price slide and fresh geopolitical crises.
Focusing Facts
- The eight producers—Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman—had already lifted 2025 targets by 2.9 million b/d but will leave the remaining 1.2 million b/d of 2023 cuts offline until at least April 2026.
- Tensions spiked when a UAE-aligned force seized southern Yemeni territory in December; Riyadh demanded and received a UAE troop withdrawal within 24 hours.
- One day before the meeting, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, adding uncertainty over the roughly 800,000 b/d Venezuelan supply path.
Context
Cartel discipline surviving domestic quarrels is not new: during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war OPEC still hammered out quotas, and in 1990—days after Iraq invaded Kuwait—members met to manage output. Today’s freeze echoes those episodes, showing price management regularly trumps politics inside the group. Long-term, the decision reflects two structural shifts: chronic oversupply driven by non-OPEC growth (U.S. shale, Guyana, Brazil) and OPEC+’s evolution into a crisis-management forum that meets monthly, not yearly, to micro-steer sentiment. Whether this moment matters a century from now hinges on oil’s share of the energy mix: if electrification and decarbonisation accelerate, historians may see 2026 as late-stage cartel brinkmanship—echoing the 1928 Achnacarry Agreement that delayed but could not stop competitive overproduction—rather than a pivotal turn. Still, the cartel’s ability to project unity while two core Gulf members exchange airstrikes and a fellow member’s president is detained by a superpower underscores how durable the supply-management model remains even as geopolitical ground shifts beneath it.
Perspectives
Western financial and energy trade press
Reuters, Bloomberg Business — The decision to pause output increases is portrayed as a prudent, coordinated move that underscores OPEC+ cohesion and stabilises a market facing surplus and price weakness. Heavy reliance on OPEC insiders and market analysts who benefit from perceptions of cartel discipline risks downplaying the depth of internal rifts and potential downside for oil prices.
Nigerian business outlets concerned with domestic revenue
Nairametrics, Naija247news — Keeping production flat is framed as a cautionary stance that could leave oil prices ‘stable but subdued,’ limiting Nigeria’s vital export earnings and straining its fiscal position. A focus on Nigeria’s budgetary needs may over-emphasise the negative, overlooking how price stability might aid consumers and broader economic planning across other countries.
Regional and international political news stressing turmoil
Stabroek News, The Manila Times — The lightning-quick meeting and avoidance of hot issues illustrate how geopolitical crises—from the Saudi-UAE Yemen feud to the US capture of Maduro—are overshadowing supply fundamentals and leaving OPEC+ paralysed. Highlighting dramatic geopolitical angles can exaggerate the alliance’s fragility to draw readership, potentially undervaluing its historical ability to weather internal disputes.