Business & Economics
Norway’s 2025 Auto Market Hits 95.9 % Battery-Electric Share Ahead of 2026 VAT Hike
New 2025 registration data show Norway’s new-car market is now 95.9 % battery-electric, effectively ending mainstream petrol/diesel sales nine years before the EU’s postponed 2035 target.
Focusing Facts
- OFV counted 172,232 fully-electric cars out of 179,549 registrations in 2025; December alone peaked at 35,188 cars with a 97.6 % BEV share.
- Tesla sold 34,285 vehicles for a 19.1 % share while Chinese brands such as BYD jumped to 24,524 sales (13.7 %), up from 10.4 % in 2024.
- An additional VAT of up to NOK 50,000 (≈US$5,000) on EVs above NOK 300,000 takes effect 1 Jan 2026, driving a 158 % year-on-year surge in December sales.
Context
Norway’s numbers echo the United States’ 1908–1920 tipping point when the Ford Model T pushed horse-drawn vehicles off city streets; both shifts hinged less on moral arguments than on cost structure and infrastructure. Since the 1990s, Norway has funneled oil revenues into hydro-power and progressive tax policy, steadily raising fuel and registration fees while sheltering EVs—an inversion of producer-state path dependence that challenges the idea that petrostates can’t decarbonize. The 2025 data also highlight two broader currents: (1) fiscal ‘carrot-and-whip’ strategies appear more durable than blanket sales bans now wobbling in Brussels, and (2) Chinese OEMs are leveraging Norway as a Schengen beach-head to test and refine export models, reminiscent of how Japanese automakers used the U.S. West Coast in the 1970s. On a 100-year timeline, this may be remembered less for Norway’s volume—which is tiny globally—than for proving that penetration can cross 90 % before grid collapse or consumer revolt, eroding the narrative that the EV transition must be slow and linear.
Perspectives
Western tech and business outlets
e.g., Yahoo Autos, TechSpot, Economic Times — Norway’s near-total shift to electric cars—driven by generous incentives—validates the country as a global EV role model, with Tesla’s 19-percent share underscoring its continued dominance. Stories highlight Tesla’s success and Norway’s exemplar status, downplaying rising Chinese competition and glossing over cost or reliability concerns that could temper the rosy narrative.
Chinese state-owned media
e.g., China.org.cn, Xinhua-syndicated The Star — The data show Chinese brands like BYD rapidly expanding to 13.7 percent of Norway’s market, demonstrating the competitiveness and growing appeal of China’s EV industry abroad. Coverage spotlights Chinese gains and soft-pedals the fact that Tesla still outsells any single Chinese marque, reflecting Beijing’s incentive to project technological leadership.
EV-industry and statistical outlets
e.g., electrive.com, News.az — Hitting a 95.9 percent BEV share in 2025 fulfils Norway’s policy targets, yet officials caution that two-thirds of the fleet still runs on fossil fuel and further measures are needed. By foregrounding policy mechanics and future targets, these sources implicitly endorse continued regulatory intervention and may understate consumer choice or market downsides.