Global & US Headlines
China’s ‘Justice Mission 2025’ Encirclement Drill Spurs Taiwan’s 2026 Unity-for-Defense Drive
In the final week of 2025 Beijing ran its largest ever blockade-style exercise around Taiwan, and on 1 Jan 2026 President Lai responded with a public call to pass a stalled US$40 bn defense budget and fortify deterrence.
Focusing Facts
- During “Justice Mission 2025” Taiwan tracked 89 PLA aircraft and 28 naval vessels on a single day, many crossing the strait’s median line, while live-fire zones ringed the island.
- Eleven days before the drill, Washington cleared an $11 billion arms package to Taipei—its biggest to date—covering missiles, drones and artillery software.
- Japan’s new prime minister Sanae Takaichi stated in Nov 2025 that an attack on Taiwan could activate Japan’s collective self-defense commitments, the first such declaration by a Japanese leader since 1945.
Context
China’s rehearsal echoes the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Crisis, when missile tests backfired by nudging Taipei closer to Washington, just as today’s drill hardens Japanese and Filipino alignment. The episode also recalls the 1962 Cuban quarantine: a blockade-like move meant to compel without firing, gambling that the other side blinks. Structurally, it reflects three converging long-term trends: (1) Beijing’s shift from symbolic fly-bys to practiced encirclement and AI-driven cognitive warfare; (2) the slow erosion of Japan’s post-1947 pacifism; and (3) Washington’s incremental end-run around its own “strategic ambiguity” via ever-larger arms packages. On a 100-year arc, whether Taiwan can secure both the semiconductor supply-chain and democratic self-determination will shape the balance of techno-industrial power much as the 19th-century scramble for coal and steel colonies did before 1914. If the blockade playbook becomes normalized, future great-power disputes—from the South China Sea to the Persian Gulf—may default to siege economics rather than immediate shooting wars, keeping the peace statistically but raising the long-term cost of miscalculation.
Perspectives
Right leaning US media
Right leaning US media — Sees China’s intensifying drills as clear proof of mounting aggression that must be met with stronger U-S-led military deterrence to prevent an invasion of Taiwan. Hawkish framing accentuates worst-case scenarios and validates heavier American defense spending while downplaying diplomatic off-ramps.
Taiwanese pro-independence press
Taiwanese pro-independence press — Frames Beijing’s actions as a multi-front campaign—from AI disinformation to blockade drills—aimed at coercing Taiwan, urging domestic unity and rapid passage of a multi-billion-dollar defense budget. Alarmist tone rallies public opinion behind the governing party’s policies and budgets while casting opposition legislators as appeasers.
Philippine nationalist commentary
Philippine nationalist commentary — Argues that a U-S-China clash over Taiwan could drag Manila into an unwanted conflict, suggesting the Philippines should consider a neutral stance despite pressure from Washington and Tokyo. Calls for neutrality appeal to domestic wariness of foreign entanglements yet gloss over Manila’s growing security ties with the U-S.