Business & Economics
Silver Breaks US$79/oz as CME Tightens Futures Rules and China Restricts Exports
On 26-28 Dec 2025 silver vaulted to a record US$79.7 an ounce, triggering a $25,000 initial-margin hike on CME futures and coinciding with Beijing’s January 2026 export-license mandate, together redefining the market’s supply and trading landscape.
Focusing Facts
- MCX futures in India peaked at ₹2.42 lakh/kg on 28 Dec 2025, a 15 % jump in one week and 175 % year-to-date.
- CME announced on 26 Dec 2025 a US$25,000 initial margin and lower position limits for March 2026 silver contracts, effective the next trading day.
- China, which controls roughly 60-70 % of traded supply, will require export licenses for silver shipments starting 1 Jan 2026.
Context
Commodity manias usually crescendo when physical scarcity collides with financial leverage. The Hunt brothers’ 1980 "Silver Thursday"—when prices crashed 50 % after COMEX margin hikes—shows how exchange rules can puncture speculative highs; the 2011 spike to US$49.5 and rapid 30 % fall after five CME hikes rhymed with that tale. Today’s rally differs: unlike 1980’s jewelry-driven demand, structural pull from solar, EVs, and AI hardware means silver is morphing into a strategic input akin to copper in the post-WWII electrification boom. Supply remains hostage to base-metal by-product output, so price alone may not summon new mines—echoing 1940s uranium or 1970s platinum deficits. China’s export licensing reprises 1960s U.S. cobalt stockpile controls, weaponizing a materials chokepoint. Whether this week marks a peak or a phase shift matters: over a century, the move could signal silver’s elevation from “poor man’s gold” to an industrial critical mineral, recasting monetary and tech supply chains alike.
Perspectives
Mainstream international business media
e.g., Bloomberg Business, Yahoo! Finance — The dramatic run-up in gold and silver mainly reflects a flight to safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar and expectations for further U.S. rate cuts. By focusing on macro trading themes that resonate with their global investor readership, they risk overstating short-term sentiment drivers while giving limited weight to longer-term supply-and-demand fundamentals.
Commodity-focused analysts and trade publications
e.g., NewsBytes, mint, Blockonomi, Free Press Journal — Silver’s record rally is primarily the result of chronic supply deficits colliding with soaring industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles and AI data centres, a squeeze that may push prices even higher in 2026. These outlets cater to metals investors and industry insiders, so their coverage tends to accentuate bullish structural-shortage narratives and can underplay speculative froth or the risk of price reversals.
Indian regional and bullion-market press highlighting regulatory risks
e.g., @businessline, The Times of India — The spike past $79/oz has triggered fears of market manipulation and a looming ‘Silver Thursday’ style crash as CME margin hikes and position limits threaten to yank prices lower, already freezing retail trade at home. Reporting is coloured by the concerns of local jewellers and traders facing inventory losses, so it emphasises conspiracy-tinged narratives about powerful financiers and may downplay legitimate global demand factors.