Technology & Science
December 22, 2025: Back-to-back Asian launch failures—Japan’s H3 and South Korea’s Hanbit-Nano
Within the same 24-hour window, Japan’s eighth H3 flight and South Korea’s maiden commercial Hanbit-Nano mission both suffered upper-stage anomalies, abruptly halting expansion plans for two of Asia’s newest rockets.
Focusing Facts
- Japan’s H3-24L upper stage LE-5B-3 engine failed to reignite on its second burn, stranding the 4,800 kg QZS-5 navigation satellite and pushing the rocket’s record to 6 successes, 2 failures (25 % failure rate).
- Innospace’s 2-stage Hanbit-Nano broke up shortly after Max Q during its first orbital attempt from Brazil’s Alcântara site, destroying five cubesats from Brazil, India, and South Korea.
- JAXA formed a presidential task force on 22 Dec and froze all future H3 manifests—including the 2027 LUPEX Moon-lander mission—until the root cause is identified.
Context
Rocket programs nearly always stumble early: America’s Vanguard TV-3 blew up on 6 Dec 1957, and Europe’s Ariane 5 lost Cluster on 4 Jun 1996, yet both lines went on to decades of reliable service. The twin Asian setbacks echo that pattern, underscoring a persistent truth: propulsion and stage-separation margins remain unforgiving even in an era where SpaceX logs 90+ launches a year. Strategically, Tokyo’s and Seoul’s governments view independent access to orbit as insulation from U.S. or Chinese supply chains—Japan for autonomous navigation (QZSS) and lunar logistics, Korea for an emerging small-sat market. Monday’s failures therefore stall broader regional ambitions: Artemis cargo slots, LUPEX science, and Korean commercial cubesat services. On a 100-year horizon, these hiccups will likely read as footnotes—much like early airline crashes did to commercial aviation—but they remind policymakers that incumbent providers with proven reliability (Falcon 9, LVM3, Long March) still hold leverage while newcomers iterate toward the 99 % success plateau.
Perspectives
Japanese business press
e.g., Nikkei Asia — Sees the H3 program as still commercially attractive, pointing to the newly-signed Eutelsat satellite launches as evidence that Japan can compete in the global launch market. Coverage foregrounds commercial wins and omits this week's engine failure, reflecting a desire to bolster confidence in a domestic industrial champion.
Western tech industry watchdogs
e.g., The Register, Gizmodo — Describe the latest H3 failure as a serious reliability crisis, stressing the rocket’s 25 percent failure rate and warning the setback threatens Japan’s space ambitions. Headlines emphasize worst-case implications and play up failure statistics, an angle that creates eye-catching doom but downplays the vehicle’s five recent successes.
Tech lifestyle and enthusiast space outlets
e.g., Digital Trends, Spaceflight Now — Frame the Japanese and Korean rocket mishaps as reminders that spaceflight is inherently hard while noting that programs such as SpaceX overcame similar troubles through persistence. By tempering criticism with reassuring historical analogies, these pieces risk minimizing how damaging back-to-back failures can be for less-funded national programs.