Global & US Headlines
US Floats Legally-Binding NATO-Style Security Guarantees for Ukraine in Berlin Peace Talks
During 14-16 Dec 2025 Berlin negotiations, the Trump administration for the first time offered Kyiv a congressionally-approved mutual-defence pledge, pushing a five-document peace package to "90 % complete" while territorial questions remain unresolved.
Focusing Facts
- U.S. officials on 16 Dec said the draft deal is “90 %” agreed and would give Ukraine an Article-5-like guarantee backed by a vote in Congress.
- Advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met President Zelenskyy in Berlin on 15 Dec to present the plan, which pairs peace, security guarantees, and reconstruction agreements.
- European defence shares fell roughly 2-4 % on 16 Dec (e.g., Rheinmetall −4 %) after reports of progress toward the deal.
Context
Washington last gave Kyiv written security assurances in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, a pledge that evaporated when Russia seized Crimea in 2014; the new offer echoes the 1951 U.S.–Japan Treaty—bilateral, binding, but outside a multilateral alliance. It reflects a broader post-Cold-War pattern of ad-hoc U.S. security umbrellas (e.g., Iraq 2008 SOFA, AUKUS 2021) filling gaps that NATO expansion has not. If ratified, it would redraw Europe’s security map by placing a non-NATO state under de facto U.S. protection, complicating both Russian strategy and future alliance politics. On a 100-year horizon, the episode tests whether great-power guarantees can deter revanchism without formal enlargement—success could institutionalize flexible defense pacts; failure would reinforce the lesson that paper promises, like those of 1939 Poland or 1994 Ukraine, crumble when tanks cross borders.
Perspectives
European liberal media
e.g., The Guardian, RTE — Portray the U.S.–brokered plan as only tentative progress, stressing that any peace must not force Kyiv to surrender land and that sanctions on Moscow must stay until Russia withdraws. By foregrounding legal-moral principles they cast the Trump team’s diplomacy as suspect and risk minimizing the political pressure on Ukraine to compromise, echoing EU interest in keeping a hard line on Russia.
Business & market-focused outlets
e.g., Investing.com, Market Beat — Frame the Article-5 style guarantees as a sign that a deal – and therefore an end to the war – could be near, noting falling defence stocks as traders price in peace. Their investor lens spotlights share-price moves rather than humanitarian or geopolitical stakes, so they can overstate optimism and gloss over unresolved territorial disputes to explain market swings.
Security-hawk analysts
ISW quoted by Ukrinform — Argue that Moscow will reject any agreement that leaves Ukraine intact, warning that security guarantees are futile because Russia still aims to dominate the whole country. The think-tank’s track record of highlighting Russian threat scenarios may incline it toward worst-case assessments, downplaying diplomatic openings to justify continued military assistance.