Business & Economics
China’s Trade Surplus Blasts Past $1 Trillion After November Export Rebound
A 5.9 % year-on-year jump in November 2025 exports pushed China’s cumulative trade surplus to a record $1.08 trillion, passing the symbolic $1 trillion mark even though sales to the U.S. collapsed.
Focusing Facts
- Shipments to the United States slid 28.6 % year-on-year to $33.8 billion in November.
- Cumulative surplus for Jan–Nov 2025 hit $1.08 trillion, already above the 2024 full-year total.
- Imports rose only 1.9 % YoY in November, missing the 3 % Bloomberg consensus and underscoring weak domestic demand.
Context
Surpluses crossing psychological thresholds have shaken trade politics before: Japan’s $56 bn surplus with the U.S. in 1985 led to the Plaza Accord that re-pegged the yen; China’s own 2008 surplus spike of $298 bn preceded the first major RMB-revaluation campaign. Today’s $1 trillion figure signals a structural repeat: an export-first model accelerating when domestic demand and property investment sag, aided by deflation-driven price competitiveness and clever rerouting around U.S. tariffs. On a 100-year arc, the episode reminds us that mercantilist imbalances tend to invite policy backlash—Macron’s tariff threat echoes 1930s U.S. Smoot-Hawley rhetoric—yet they also reveal the system’s adaptability, with supply chains fluidly re-mapping to ASEAN, MENA and Latin America. Whether this milestone forces another Plaza-style realignment, or fades like earlier alarms, will shape the next phase of globalization far more than the short-lived Xi–Trump truce expiring in 2026.
Perspectives
Business-focused international outlets
e.g., Yahoo! Finance, TRT World — They frame the record $1 trillion surplus as evidence that China’s export machine remains resilient and will likely keep widening thanks to trade-rerouting and price competitiveness. Market-centric coverage spotlights the upside for investors while giving comparatively little weight to the political blowback or structural weaknesses that the same data hint at.
Western regional and national newspapers
e.g., The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel, The Japan Times — They highlight the surplus as a flash-point that may trigger fresh Western retaliation, stressing Macron’s tariff threat and the plunge in U.S.-bound shipments as signs of deepening friction. Stories lean into a conflict narrative that aligns with domestic protectionist sentiment, potentially overstating the imminence or severity of retaliatory measures.
Global South media with close economic ties to China
e.g., Channels Television, Legit.ng — Coverage focuses on the November export rebound as welcome good news that cushions China’s slowdown, stressing how overseas sales ‘mitigate weak domestic demand.’ Positive framing reflects incentives to maintain favourable relations with a key investor, leading to minimal scrutiny of the trade imbalance’s wider consequences.