Business & Economics
OPEC+ Freezes Q1-2026 Output and Orders External Capacity Audit
On 30 Nov 2025, the eight-nation OPEC+ steering group formally locked production at December-2025 levels for Jan–Mar 2026 and commissioned DeGolyer & MacNaughton to verify each member’s maximum sustainable capacity for 2027 quota setting.
Focusing Facts
- Required January-2026 ceilings: Saudi Arabia 10.103 mb/d, Russia 9.574 mb/d, UAE 3.411 mb/d, bringing the eight-member total to ~32 mb/d.
- Dallas-based consultant DeGolyer & MacNaughton selected to conduct the MSC audit that will underpin 2027 baselines.
- A final 137,000 bpd collective hike will still occur in December 2025 before the three-month pause.
Context
Cartels wobble when the pie stops growing. In 1986, OPEC tried to defend prices by cutting output, only to see discipline crumble and Brent crash below $10; the current pause echoes that defensive posture, but this time the surplus is driven by US-led non-OPEC supply and a demand plateau reminiscent of 2014-16. Structurally, the move signals two trends: (1) OPEC+ is trading short-term revenue for long-term cohesion, using third-party audits to quiet internal disputes over ‘phantom’ capacity—a tactic last attempted with the ill-fated 1982 quota system—and (2) the cartel is conceding that its pricing power is eroding as electrification, efficiency mandates, and shale flexibility tilt the market toward buyers. On a 100-year horizon, whether this matters depends on how fast the world exits oil: if net-zero pathways prevail by 2050, historians may view the 2025 pause as a late-stage effort to manage decline; if hydrocarbons persist, tightening verification today could prolong OPEC+ relevance much like the 1928 Achnacarry Agreement did for the ‘Seven Sisters.’ Either way, the decision illustrates the perennial struggle of producer alliances to balance collective restraint with national self-interest amid shifting technological and geopolitical landscapes.
Perspectives
Russian state media
e.g., TASS, News.az — Portrays the pause in OPEC+ output hikes as a prudent, flexible step that will safeguard oil-market stability through vigilant monitoring and potential extra measures. Russia is a core OPEC+ player whose budget relies heavily on crude exports, so its outlets have an incentive to frame the decision as wise stewardship rather than acknowledge risks of oversupply or falling prices.
Western financial press focused on investors
e.g., Bloomberg via CNBC-TV18, Rigzone — Emphasises that while the supply pause shows caution, it still leaves the world heading for a sizeable glut in 2026, threatening further price declines. These outlets speak to traders who benefit from warning about excess supply and price downside, so they spotlight bearish analyst quotes and underplay producers’ claims of ‘stability.’
Asian market-news outlets
e.g., CNA — Highlights that crude prices immediately rose over 1.5 % after OPEC+ kept output unchanged, framing the meeting chiefly through its short-term impact on Asian trading hours. A real-time market focus can exaggerate day-to-day price moves and sidestep deeper structural issues like looming oversupply, catering to short-horizon traders.