Business & Economics
Modi & Carney Re-launch India-Canada CEPA Talks After Two-Year Freeze
On 24 Nov 2025, the two Prime Ministers formally reopened negotiations for a ‘high-ambition’ Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) that had been suspended since 2023, targeting a near-doubling of trade by 2030.
Focusing Facts
- Negotiators now aim for USD 50 billion (≈C $70 billion) in annual bilateral trade by 2030, up from about C $31 billion in 2024.
- The original CEPA process—first launched in 2010, relaunched in 2022—was halted in Sept 2023 after Ottawa accused Indian agents of killing Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.
- Johannesburg meeting also unveiled the Australia-Canada-India Technology & Innovation Partnership (ACITI) to cooperate on critical minerals, AI, and nuclear supply chains.
Context
Great-power frictions often pause but rarely end commerce; Canada resumed wheat sales to China only six years after Tiananmen (1995), and US-Vietnam trade normalised 20 years after Saigon’s fall (2001). Likewise, Ottawa and New Delhi are testing whether economic self-interest can outpace diaspora politics and mutual accusations. Canada wants to cut its 75 % export dependence on the US, echoing the 1988 FTA debates when diversification fears surfaced; India seeks multiple G7 partners to hedge against a possible repeat of post-1974 nuclear sanctions. The ACITI framework hints at an emerging mid-power lattice—countries rich in critical minerals, markets and tech pooling resources outside US-China polarities. If CEPA materialises, it would mark only the second time (after the 1947 Indo-Canadian wheat agreement) that the two Commonwealth states lock in a long-term economic pact—minor today, but a brick in the century-long trend toward a more polycentric trade architecture where security spats slow, rather than stop, supply-chain realignments.
Perspectives
Pro-Modi Indian nationalist outlets
e.g., Republic World, ThePrint — Present the trade-talk restart as a diplomatic victory for Modi that proves Trudeau’s earlier allegations against India were unfounded while spotlighting Khalistani extremism as the real problem. Likely to frame events through a nationalist lens that absolves New Delhi of any wrongdoing and portrays Canada’s past concerns as politically motivated, which may underplay unresolved security and human-rights questions.
Indian business and financial press
e.g., Business Standard, MoneyControl, DNA India, CNBC-TV18 — Treat the CEPA reboot chiefly as an economic story, stressing targets like doubling trade to USD 50 billion by 2030 and new openings for investors and pension funds. Commercial boosterism can lead to glossing over the lingering diplomatic mistrust or the risk that political disputes could again derail negotiations.
Global tech/crypto-focused investor media
Cryptopolitan — Frames the thaw as a chance to unlock markets, student mobility and green-energy projects, pitching the story to international investors seeking growth. Investor-oriented angle may overstate ease of doing business and understate the fragility of the political rapprochement for the sake of a bullish narrative.