Technology & Science
U.S. Floats Export License for Nvidia’s H200 AI Chips to China
In late-November 2025, Commerce Department officials began evaluating whether to grant Nvidia a license to ship its H200 accelerator to Chinese customers, a reversal of export controls first imposed in 2022.
Focusing Facts
- Nvidia shares spiked as much as 2 % to US$184.29 on 21 Nov 2025 after Bloomberg/Reuters revealed the internal debate.
- The H200 delivers roughly double the performance of the H20—the most advanced chip Washington currently approves—yet still uses 2022-era Hopper architecture rather than the latest Blackwell line.
- A bipartisan Senate draft bill would compel Commerce to automatically deny any license for currently-restricted AI chips, potentially blocking H200 exports if passed.
Context
Washington’s dilemma echoes the 1987 Toshiba-Kongsberg episode, when the U.S. tightened COCOM rules after Japan sold submarine-quieting machine tools to the USSR; then, as now, commercial allies sold second-tier tech that still had strategic bite. The debate sits at the confluence of three long arcs: (1) the century-long pattern of the U.S. using export controls to slow rival industrial catch-up (from the 1949 Coordinating Committee to the 2019 Huawei ban); (2) the relentless two-year cadence of GPU leaps that quickly turns “cutting-edge” into “previous-gen,” blurring security thresholds; and (3) the shift from single-supplier chokepoints to a multipolar semiconductor landscape where China, the Gulf, and others court alternatives. Whether the H200 license is granted or blocked may matter little in 2125—the performance gap will vanish within product cycles—but today’s decision will signal how the U.S. balances short-term leverage against fostering foreign self-sufficiency, a tension that historically tends to push targeted nations (e.g., post-embargo France’s 1960s force de frappe) toward rapid indigenous capability.
Perspectives
Global business & financial press
e.g., The Business Times, The Economic Times — Potential H200 licences are portrayed chiefly as a lucrative breakthrough for Nvidia that signals a softer, deal-making phase in U.S.–China tech relations. With an investor-centric angle, the coverage spotlights share-price pops and corporate lobbying while giving scant attention to intelligence or military risks that might dampen business opportunities.
U.S. outlets echoing China-hawk concerns
e.g., Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette — The contemplated sale is framed as an alarming concession that would undermine earlier export controls and draw fierce opposition from national-security hard-liners. By foregrounding threats and domestic backlash, these reports can overemphasise worst-case security scenarios and underplay the economic or diplomatic motives behind the review.
Chinese tech media
e.g., TMTPost — Stories depict the talks as a major U.S. policy pivot that could hand China better AI hardware and expose divisions inside Washington. The narrative underscores U.S. inconsistency and benefits to Chinese industry, while glossing over Western security rationales or Beijing’s own tech-military ambitions.