Business & Economics
Nvidia Posts Record Q3 and Lifts Q4 Outlook to $65 B Despite China Revenue Collapse
On 20 Nov 2025 Nvidia smashed Q3 estimates and, more surprisingly, guided next-quarter sales to roughly $65 billion—well above forecasts—sending markets higher and dampening talk of an imminent AI-hardware bust.
Focusing Facts
- Q3 FY-2026 revenue: $57.01 billion versus the $55.2 billion consensus; EPS $1.30 adjusted.
- Management forecast Q4 revenue of $65 billion ± 2%, topping Wall Street’s $62 billion expectation.
- China sales plunged to $2.8 billion (5 % of total), far below the $8.4 billion analysts projected and down from 13 % of revenue the prior fiscal year.
Context
Big earnings beats are not new for chip cycles, but the juxtaposition here—record global demand alongside a 67 % year-on-year drop in China—echoes Intel’s 1993 Pentium launch surge during U.S.–Japan tech tensions: explosive Western growth masking a shrinking share in a strategic rival’s market. Long-term, the numbers signal three structural forces: (1) the accelerating replacement of general-purpose CPUs by AI accelerators in data centers; (2) the fusion of industrial policy and semiconductors, with export controls shaping winners; and (3) the capital-market feedback loop where a single supplier now dictates broad equity sentiment, reminiscent of the railway trusts that steered U.S. indices in the 1890s. Whether today’s “virtuous cycle of AI” resembles the lasting electrification build-out (1890-1920) or the shorter fiber-optic glut (1998-2001) will hinge on how quickly workload demand, not hype, absorbs the half-trillion-dollar order book. Either way, this print cements Nvidia’s role as a geopolitical and macro barometer, a position few companies sustain over a hundred-year span.
Perspectives
Upbeat investor-focused business outlets
Economic Times, Barchart.com, Blockonomi — Nvidia's blockbuster quarter proves that AI demand is accelerating worldwide and bubble fears are overblown, signaling a virtuous growth cycle that will keep lifting tech and markets. These publications cater to traders chasing momentum, so they highlight record numbers and bullish CEO quotes while downplaying valuation or macro risks to sustain reader optimism.
Skeptical market commentators and analysts
Axios, BeInCrypto — Although Nvidia beat expectations, analysts worry the spending boom cannot last, warning that high valuations and AI euphoria still threaten a bubble and broader market volatility. Positioning themselves as contrarian experts, they emphasize downside scenarios and bubble language to stand out and keep risk-minded readers engaged, even when data is positive.
US financial news focused on China trade tensions
Yahoo! Finance — The earnings spotlight Nvidia's faltering China sales, showing that export controls and rising local rivals risk denting growth despite strong overall numbers. By zeroing in on the geopolitical angle, the outlet may overstate China's revenue shortfall to fit ongoing US-China trade war narratives, giving less weight to Nvidia’s surging non-China demand.