Business & Economics
US tariff pause ends, reshaping Asia-Pacific risk calculus as Singapore’s US-bound exports plunge and Aussie voters put tariffs ahead of China threat
With Washington’s tariff pause expiring in early August (Aug 1) and reciprocal duties resuming on Aug 7, Australian polling now shows 42% of voters more worried about US trade barriers than China’s military build-up (37%), signaling a sharp shift from security to geoeconomic risk, while Asia’s trade hubs brace for sector-specific hikes.
Focusing Facts
- Singapore’s NODX fell 4.6% year-on-year in July after +12.9% in June; shipments to the US dropped 42.7% (EnterpriseSG, Aug 18).
- Australia faces a blanket 10% US tariff; separate 50% duties apply to steel, aluminium and copper, with floated sectoral rates up to 250% for pharmaceuticals.
- Tariff front‑loading faded as the US pause ended Aug 1 and reciprocal tariffs resumed Aug 7, heightening uncertainty over exemptions (e.g., semiconductors).
Context
The collision of trade policy and public sentiment echoes past episodes when tariffs redefined strategy: the 1930 Smoot–Hawley Act deepened global fractures amid the Depression, while the late‑1980s US–Japan frictions (voluntary export restraints, 1985 Plaza Accord) steered supply chains without outright deglobalization. Today’s shift—Aussie voters ranking tariffs ahead of a near‑peer military threat, and Singapore’s sudden export air‑pocket—fits a longer arc from hyper‑globalization (1990s–2010s) to strategic fragmentation where tariffs become tools of industrial policy and leverage. Be cautious: Newspoll is a single survey run for a News Corp outlet and Singapore’s pharma-heavy base can exaggerate monthly swings, but the direction is consistent with 2018–2019 trade‑war dynamics—front‑loading, policy whiplash, and firm‑level exemptions. Over a 100‑year horizon, moments like this matter less for the headline rates and more for institutional learning: states, firms, and voters are normalizing geoeconomic coercion, encouraging redundancy (reshoring/friend‑shoring), and gradually rewiring Asia’s export model toward tighter blocs. Whether this resolves into a stable, bifurcated order or prolonged policy volatility will set the constraint set for the next generation of growth in the Indo‑Pacific.
Perspectives
Australian conservative and tabloid outlets
Sky News Australia, News.com.au — Polling is framed as showing US tariffs are a top national concern for voters—often exceeding fears of China’s military threat—while highlighting criticism of the Albanese government’s handling of the US relationship and failure to secure tariff exemptions. Stresses alarm over tariffs and the government’s shortcomings and uses punchy poll framing, which can sensationalise the stakes and reinforce a critical narrative toward Labor.
Australian business press
Australian Financial Review — Emphasises the rebound in Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings and Labor’s sustained two‑party lead, framing the moment primarily through leadership ratings and party standings. Focus on horserace metrics and political performance may underplay tariff‑related anxieties and international economic risks emphasised in other coverage.
Singaporean mainstream media
The Straits Times, CNA — Attributes Singapore’s July export slump to the fading of front‑loading before the US tariff pause ended and to ongoing reciprocal tariffs, stressing uncertainty over prospective sectoral tariffs (e.g., semiconductors, pharmaceuticals). Leans on official EnterpriseSG data and economist commentary, adopting a cautious, technocratic tone that avoids apportioning political blame.